Paramount is wagering that European regulators will block a potential WBD–Netflix deal. Here’s what that could mean for the future of one of America’s most influential media empires—and for who ultimately controls some of the most valuable sports and entertainment assets in the world.
The fate of Warner Bros. Discovery—from its storied movie studio and HBO Max streaming service to cable brands like CNN, TNT, TBS, Discovery, and HGTV—may hinge less on U.S. politics and more on how European regulators view a potential deal with Netflix.
That’s a striking twist, considering the transaction’s biggest implications involve American media and sports rights that have little direct connection to Europe. Yet regulators across the Atlantic could end up determining which corporate vision prevails.
Two Competing Futures for Warner Bros. Discovery
Under the current agreement, Netflix has offered $27.75 per share to acquire WBD’s movie studio and streaming operations. The cable networks—which house major live sports rights—would be carved out into a new publicly traded company, Discovery Global. That entity would retain properties like Bleacher Report, House of Highlights, and other digital assets, along with rights to marquee events such as March Madness, Major League Baseball, the NHL, NASCAR, and the College Football Playoff.
But there’s a rival bid in play. Paramount Global, backed by Skydance, has launched a hostile $30-per-share offer for all of WBD. If shareholders accept that proposal and regulators approve it, WBD’s cable networks and sports portfolio would fold directly into Paramount’s empire.
Paramount recently extended the deadline on its tender offer, buying more time to sway shareholders. WBD, however, says fewer than 7% have tendered their shares so far and insists the Netflix deal delivers clearer and more certain value.
The Regulatory Spotlight Shifts to Europe
Much of the early debate centered on Washington—particularly what former President Donald Trump might think about a Netflix-WBD merger. Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos even met with Trump ahead of the deal. Ultimately, the U.S. Department of Justice will assess antitrust concerns at home.
But Europe may prove just as pivotal. Netflix generates roughly a third of its global revenue in the EMEA region, making European approval unavoidable. WBD insiders say they’re highly confident—placing the odds of approval near 95%—even if concessions are required, such as increased local content production or firm commitments to theatrical releases under EU rules like the Audiovisual Media Services Directive.
Paramount sees it very differently. Executives believe European regulators are unlikely to greenlight a deal that would further concentrate power in the hands of a global tech-driven streamer. They point to Europe’s aggressive antitrust posture in recent years, which has targeted companies like Google, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon.
History offers mixed signals. European authorities forced Adobe to abandon its $20 billion acquisition of Figma, and required Meta’s Facebook to divest Giphy. Yet they also approved Amazon’s purchase of MGM—a deal many see as the closest analogue to Netflix-Warner.
The Theater Question and Boardroom Doubts
European regulators may also weigh cultural considerations, particularly the health of movie theaters. Cinema trade groups on both sides of the Atlantic have voiced concern about a Netflix-Warner combination. Sarandos has sought to calm those fears, reaffirming that Warner Bros. films would continue to enjoy a 45-day theatrical window.
Inside WBD, the board reportedly views a merger with Paramount’s movie studio as an even tougher regulatory challenge than a Netflix deal. Executives also question whether Paramount, led by Skydance CEO David Ellison, can realistically fund an ambitious slate of 30-plus films per year while managing heavy debt and aggressive cost-cutting targets—unless additional equity comes from his father, Larry Ellison.
What Happens Next
Netflix has recently simplified its proposal by shifting to an all-cash offer, potentially accelerating a shareholder vote as early as March. Paramount, meanwhile, is weighing whether to sweeten its bid—or sit back and bet that regulators, especially in Europe, derail the Netflix transaction.
For all the talk about live sports being the lifeblood of modern media, those assets have become almost a sideshow in a drama increasingly dominated by regulatory chess. Europe’s decision could ultimately decide which corporate vision wins—and reshape the global media landscape in the process.